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thank you all for your readership (though very little to be read here recently). i’ve been working to set up my own web site and i’m quite excited about it.

i will archive the majority of the posts on this site in my new one. hopfeully the new site foster some interesting debate and maybe even some new thoughts. please drop by and check it out and change any rss feeds accordingly. thanks and look forward to hearing from you all!

luke

http://www.hicsuntleones.us

well friends, you’re probably thinking to yourself, ‘this luke guy clearly has no idea what he’s talking about…commodity prices are tumbling and looks like the banks are going to make a rebound.’

well, i may have no idea what i’m talking about, but at least i know a scam when i see one. lets review a few things just so we’re all on the same page.

1. bankers try to make money
2. you have the money they need
3. in order to make money for themselves they must take yours.
4. thusly, wall street is a sales organization hell bent on separating you from your money.

okay…that said, lets look at what’s going on. in econ 201 you learn market stimulants take 6-18 months to have effect. to those who’s job it is to be one step ahead, this gives them plenty of time to take care of their business. however, most americans only get the reports of what happened, not what is going to happen.

so do any of you actually think the inflated oil price was the true story and concern of the bankers this summer? no. it was a classic, ‘watch the baby’ scenario. while the general population was watching a fluctuating and easily manipulated price index, those in the know were putting together plans to combat the inevitable.

bankers and economists knew the banking industry was about to fail. need proof? look back to the amazingly complex and intricate plans which came to fruition in a matter of hours after failures of note to include, leman, freddy and fanny and merril.

how is it possible that the government and a private organization can put together a package requiring hundreds of pages of legalese, board approval and government sanctions in a matter of hours? answer, they didn’t. these plans were in the works for months.

so while you were duped into watching oil prices, the real issue was the complete collapse of the financial sector. feel bested? i do. because what did they get you to do? that’s right, buy banking and oil stocks. why, when your friendly financial advisor is acting in ‘your best interest’ would they have you buy manipulated stocks? simple, so they could come out smelling like roses and again, separate you from your money.

what was the plan you might ask? simple. they were exiting their positions in the financial sector while pushing oil prices higher. they got out while the getting was good in corporate banks and set themselves up for a two fold windfall of profits in commodities.

this is easier done then you might think. they pushed up oil prices by creating a buying frenzy. press releases were sent to cnbc, fox business and the like talking about shortages and never ending price surges. the minions simply followed. wall street bought in initially then watched as scared investors jumped aboard. prices sky rocketed.

but this was only phase one. this was the distracter to allow for their money making potential. did they make money on the raise, probably, but not like they did on the fall. by waiting till they had exited their financial positions, those in the know then began to short sell oil, or bet on the price falling. its an easy bet when you are the one who drives the price.

its almost like being the star quarterback betting his team will lose…he holds the key. call it cheating…most people call it investing, you be the judge.

so the real profits for these bankers is coming in the short selling of oil futures which the continually push lower. why? well, they make money on the way down as the general populace says, ‘oil was over inflated, and I need to get out.’

this is exactly wrong. they are pushing the price lower in order to buy back in at a lower price! if you knew you could sell a car for 50 grand, and then re-buy it at 10 grand, wouldn’t you do it?!? of course.

the fact of the matter is, oil has hit peak production. General Zenatti, in his weekly financial report has reiterated despite increased drilling and finds, we have been able to produce more than 85-86 million barrels of oil per day. peak oil was reached years ago according to many geologists. more proof to the dwindling oil supply is the heaviness and sulfur levels of currently drawn oil.

sweet crude, as its called, is getting harder and harder to pull out of the ground as new finds are in increasingly colder and deeper places. the cost to actually get the oil out is increasing while the supply is staying the same. moreover, india and china are using more and more oil at startlingly increasing rate.

what does that sound like? higher demand + lower supply = higher prices. but that’s not what is happening. banks are pushing prices lower so they can buy at lower prices.

so then, how can we benefit from this? it is time to start your oil and commodity buying. begin averaging down. don’t spend all your money today as prices will continue to fall. there are great deals on the things that are guaranteed to make you money, i.e. gold and oil. but don’t try to time the market.

starting buying small, but regularly for the next few months as these prices continue to be pushed lower by the banks. let them do the hard work and you reap the benefits.

here are two etfs to look at:

IAU – gold
IEO – oil

our land in crisis

this is an enormous situation and in my mind one of the most historically significant moments in our country’s history. we are at a fork in the road. we have painted ourselves into a corner where we must choose one of two difficult roads. on one hand we can choose fear and relent to the government who got us into the problem in the first place. on the other we can choose to hold fast to the ideas we cherish as americans and push through a very difficult economic time.

due to the way our financial systems are set up (this is by no means a modern idea, but the traditional ‘austrian’ capitalism re-iterated time in and time out and firmly entrenched when our founding fathers choose to utilize a national debt), we require debt and credit as a lubrication to keep the machine running.

by not ‘bailing out’ the banking system, we are throwing a wrench in the system. the banks will not loan to each other and consequently not to corporations which require capitol for further research and development. as financial institutions are hunkering down and doing their best to maintain solid balance sheets, they are less willing to make risky loans to other institutions, which works full circle to bite them in their collective asses. when the banks fail to loan, corporations limit expansion and operation; thus wall street’s woes hit main street’s wallets.

however, this is the nature of capitalism. this is why the system works. as described in ‘the wealth of nations’ capitalism works in cycles. when one industry or sector fails, those affected re-tool, re-skill then brought back into the fold in an industry which succeeds. clearly this has nothing to do with how we are handling the current debacle.

unfortunately, there is very little reward that does not come without risk. we’ve thrived and enjoyed the rewards for a very long time. now we are experiencing the risk.

this all said… by not bailing out the financial institutions we are upholding capitalistic ideas at the cost of severe and difficult repercussions. many folks will lose their jobs. many will lose their nest eggs. but just as disciplining a child is difficult at the moment, the long term benefits far out way the short term difficulties.

if we allow the government (the same knuckleheads who got us into this mess) to buy up and thus control nearly the entire financial sector, we will have moved away from our independence from governmental control. the government will now be the one’s determining which companies can or will expand, who should and should not buy property, etc.

this is frightening indeed! more over, combine these un-american ideas with the current conversation and accusations being tossed out by our supposed leaders. you have obama slamming mccain for owning multiple homes. obama is an overt and unapologetic socialist, so perhaps this is no surprise. but what is a surprise is that he is not alone! mitch mcconnell, a kentucky republican, is doing the same to his democratic rival!

catch your breath comrades! what does this sound like? both sides of the isle are bashing each other for following the american dream. is not the american dream to pull yourself up by your boot straps and succeed? i know it sounds pathetically materialistic, but alas, this is what we have collectively decided puts us in a realm surpassing all others. we dream of our children out pacing ourselves. we dream of hard work resulting in positive rewards. we dream of a freedom to pursue happiness of our own choosing.

but comrades, i can recall a group of people who believed individual success was sinful and un-patriotic. they were the reds of russian. when the reds defeated the white army, a new era was ushered in russia…communism. i’ve often discussed the ideas of communism and socialism and distinguished how one is the political and the other the economic arms of the same beast.

i’ve often asked myself how such a fiercely independent people as the cossacks could ever allow such a stark and dramatic revolution to occur. i am no longer as surprised. who 200, 100 or even 50 years ago would have ever believed we would stand on the precipice, staring at a viable comparison to stalinist-communism, styled social revolution?!

this is an unthinkably important moment in our history. this is the moment we decide the future direction of our country. this is the moment we as a nation stand and fight. we must call upon the industrious and indomitable spirit of americans to look into the face of fear and not blink. future generations will certainly judge us for how we act today!

Rockin’ Cuba

c-12

c-12

so here i am. after months of talking about it, and only days preparing, i have arrived in the beautiful island of cuba. cuba reminds me of arizona with a gorgeous coast line. during the past three weeks i’ve flown more then i expected. the days and early weeks have shot by. unfortunately, i feel more like a sponge than anything. its a funny feeling knowing you are simply absorbing with nothing really to share. but alas, here i sit.

the first few weeks have made an early impression. gtmo is an unusual place. most everyone is transient; one year is a long stay with six months the average. the feeling of being ‘new’ only lasts a month until you learn you are nearly established and all your friends are leaving. quite odd.

all said though, life is good. flying the c-12 is as much fun as i imagined before i left. switching back to fixed wing airplanes has brought with it an almost new view of flying. taxing passengers is certainly different from tactical flying. if last night is any indication, i will be gaining some interesting experiences. last night i flew to kingston jamaica just for some approaches. while this may not seem like an intersting thing to some of you, for a helo pilot, it is quite an adventure.

this is a short and insignificant entry, but just wanted to put something up. hopefully more to come…

bargain hunting

i can’t help but get a little sick pleasure out of the state of the market. honestly, playing the stock market is better than watching a good suspense movie. if you are fully invested, you hope and pray for the good guy to get out of the house with his beautiful girlfriend; if you are cashed out and on the sidelines, you love the slow steady walk of the bad guy – the one where he simply takes his time waiting for the inevitable trip.

well, looks like we’re witnessing at least a stumble if not a complete fall. i mentioned on lifeconnect two weeks ago it was time to take profits as the market was overbought simply on emotion. thankfully i took my own advice. its difficult to sell off then watch as the stocks you just sold gain a few points, but all is right when you see the red numbers of death a few days later.

there is increasing speculation as to the cause of our current volatility (a topic i will expound upon in detail later) but the fact remains, volatility is a traders friend. there are many tactics and strategies to trading, none of which i seem to employ in my ‘on again, off again’, erratic trading. the simple fact is, if you take your money seriously, then the volatility offers a great chance to make money. make no mistake, your money is yours to manage. even if you utilize a broker, you simply must take ownership over your own investments.

all right, enough rambling and on to my current watch list to include buy in points. as always, these are simply my opinions, but i put my money where my mouth is. if you care, i’ll most certainly supply chart analysis as support for my points.

scoreboard:

Year to date – Luke 19.44% Dow -7.24%
Q2 – Luke 35.36% Dow 3.06%

Watchlist:
Symbol / Target Price

AAPL 177
CSE 14.75
DRYS 66
DSX 25.13
EDU 50
ESV 65
EXM 32
FRO 50
IEO 75
ILF 250
KOL 42
LEH 20
MA 245
SFI 14
SLX 87
TAN 21
TELOZ 29.5
V 69

there you have it. do your own research, but this might be a jumping off point. happy trading. if you have any good tips, please let me know. oh, a study of market forces is on the agenda.

i must admit, my brief blogging career to date shows signs of less than stellar performance. i am, after all, a flippant writer with a short attention span. though my enthusiasm seems above reproach, my constitution for consistency is lacking.

i often feel as though i have much to say as the world must be saved. but more often than not, i’m learning it is me who is in need of salvation and education. but as any teacher will tell you, at times the best learning comes from teaching.

i do not know what i’ll write about or where this blog will take me. in the past it has served as an idea board, a launching pad, a place to rant or laud and even mournfully dirge. i hope to find direction and i hope to once again find a voice that sounds right in my own ear.

my ideas and thoughts tend to be my own and so often in opposition to those who are gracious enough to read my outspread mind. i’m not sure if i’ve offended more or spurred more thought. writing with an audience in mind is a tedious path. i’ve followed it before and bowed to its tireless pressure.

this blog will constitute my thoughts. this blog will not be about the audience. if you choose to read, please indulge fully; criticize and critique; scoff and rebuff or think and enjoy. but i must admit, i almost hope no one reads. sometimes the whisper in the wilderness is more satisfying than the shout among the masses.

today is a new day. my battered and clipped wings feel spry for flight.