thank you all for your readership (though very little to be read here recently). i’ve been working to set up my own web site and i’m quite excited about it.

i will archive the majority of the posts on this site in my new one. hopfeully the new site foster some interesting debate and maybe even some new thoughts. please drop by and check it out and change any rss feeds accordingly. thanks and look forward to hearing from you all!

luke

www.hicsuntleones.us

well friends, you’re probably thinking to yourself, ‘this luke guy clearly has no idea what he’s talking about…commodity prices are tumbling and looks like the banks are going to make a rebound.’

well, i may have no idea what i’m talking about, but at least i know a scam when i see one. lets review a few things just so we’re all on the same page.

1. bankers try to make money
2. you have the money they need
3. in order to make money for themselves they must take yours.
4. thusly, wall street is a sales organization hell bent on separating you from your money.

okay…that said, lets look at what’s going on. in econ 201 you learn market stimulants take 6-18 months to have effect. to those who’s job it is to be one step ahead, this gives them plenty of time to take care of their business. however, most americans only get the reports of what happened, not what is going to happen.

so do any of you actually think the inflated oil price was the true story and concern of the bankers this summer? no. it was a classic, ‘watch the baby’ scenario. while the general population was watching a fluctuating and easily manipulated price index, those in the know were putting together plans to combat the inevitable.

bankers and economists knew the banking industry was about to fail. need proof? look back to the amazingly complex and intricate plans which came to fruition in a matter of hours after failures of note to include, leman, freddy and fanny and merril.

how is it possible that the government and a private organization can put together a package requiring hundreds of pages of legalese, board approval and government sanctions in a matter of hours? answer, they didn’t. these plans were in the works for months.

so while you were duped into watching oil prices, the real issue was the complete collapse of the financial sector. feel bested? i do. because what did they get you to do? that’s right, buy banking and oil stocks. why, when your friendly financial advisor is acting in ‘your best interest’ would they have you buy manipulated stocks? simple, so they could come out smelling like roses and again, separate you from your money.

what was the plan you might ask? simple. they were exiting their positions in the financial sector while pushing oil prices higher. they got out while the getting was good in corporate banks and set themselves up for a two fold windfall of profits in commodities.

this is easier done then you might think. they pushed up oil prices by creating a buying frenzy. press releases were sent to cnbc, fox business and the like talking about shortages and never ending price surges. the minions simply followed. wall street bought in initially then watched as scared investors jumped aboard. prices sky rocketed.

but this was only phase one. this was the distracter to allow for their money making potential. did they make money on the raise, probably, but not like they did on the fall. by waiting till they had exited their financial positions, those in the know then began to short sell oil, or bet on the price falling. its an easy bet when you are the one who drives the price.

its almost like being the star quarterback betting his team will lose…he holds the key. call it cheating…most people call it investing, you be the judge.

so the real profits for these bankers is coming in the short selling of oil futures which the continually push lower. why? well, they make money on the way down as the general populace says, ‘oil was over inflated, and I need to get out.’

this is exactly wrong. they are pushing the price lower in order to buy back in at a lower price! if you knew you could sell a car for 50 grand, and then re-buy it at 10 grand, wouldn’t you do it?!? of course.

the fact of the matter is, oil has hit peak production. General Zenatti, in his weekly financial report has reiterated despite increased drilling and finds, we have been able to produce more than 85-86 million barrels of oil per day. peak oil was reached years ago according to many geologists. more proof to the dwindling oil supply is the heaviness and sulfur levels of currently drawn oil.

sweet crude, as its called, is getting harder and harder to pull out of the ground as new finds are in increasingly colder and deeper places. the cost to actually get the oil out is increasing while the supply is staying the same. moreover, india and china are using more and more oil at startlingly increasing rate.

what does that sound like? higher demand + lower supply = higher prices. but that’s not what is happening. banks are pushing prices lower so they can buy at lower prices.

so then, how can we benefit from this? it is time to start your oil and commodity buying. begin averaging down. don’t spend all your money today as prices will continue to fall. there are great deals on the things that are guaranteed to make you money, i.e. gold and oil. but don’t try to time the market.

starting buying small, but regularly for the next few months as these prices continue to be pushed lower by the banks. let them do the hard work and you reap the benefits.

here are two etfs to look at:

IAU – gold
IEO – oil

this is an enormous situation and in my mind one of the most historically significant moments in our country’s history. we are at a fork in the road. we have painted ourselves into a corner where we must choose one of two difficult roads. on one hand we can choose fear and relent to the government who got us into the problem in the first place. on the other we can choose to hold fast to the ideas we cherish as americans and push through a very difficult economic time.

due to the way our financial systems are set up (this is by no means a modern idea, but the traditional ‘austrian’ capitalism re-iterated time in and time out and firmly entrenched when our founding fathers choose to utilize a national debt), we require debt and credit as a lubrication to keep the machine running.

by not ‘bailing out’ the banking system, we are throwing a wrench in the system. the banks will not loan to each other and consequently not to corporations which require capitol for further research and development. as financial institutions are hunkering down and doing their best to maintain solid balance sheets, they are less willing to make risky loans to other institutions, which works full circle to bite them in their collective asses. when the banks fail to loan, corporations limit expansion and operation; thus wall street’s woes hit main street’s wallets.

however, this is the nature of capitalism. this is why the system works. as described in ‘the wealth of nations’ capitalism works in cycles. when one industry or sector fails, those affected re-tool, re-skill then brought back into the fold in an industry which succeeds. clearly this has nothing to do with how we are handling the current debacle.

unfortunately, there is very little reward that does not come without risk. we’ve thrived and enjoyed the rewards for a very long time. now we are experiencing the risk.

this all said… by not bailing out the financial institutions we are upholding capitalistic ideas at the cost of severe and difficult repercussions. many folks will lose their jobs. many will lose their nest eggs. but just as disciplining a child is difficult at the moment, the long term benefits far out way the short term difficulties.

if we allow the government (the same knuckleheads who got us into this mess) to buy up and thus control nearly the entire financial sector, we will have moved away from our independence from governmental control. the government will now be the one’s determining which companies can or will expand, who should and should not buy property, etc.

this is frightening indeed! more over, combine these un-american ideas with the current conversation and accusations being tossed out by our supposed leaders. you have obama slamming mccain for owning multiple homes. obama is an overt and unapologetic socialist, so perhaps this is no surprise. but what is a surprise is that he is not alone! mitch mcconnell, a kentucky republican, is doing the same to his democratic rival!

catch your breath comrades! what does this sound like? both sides of the isle are bashing each other for following the american dream. is not the american dream to pull yourself up by your boot straps and succeed? i know it sounds pathetically materialistic, but alas, this is what we have collectively decided puts us in a realm surpassing all others. we dream of our children out pacing ourselves. we dream of hard work resulting in positive rewards. we dream of a freedom to pursue happiness of our own choosing.

but comrades, i can recall a group of people who believed individual success was sinful and un-patriotic. they were the reds of russian. when the reds defeated the white army, a new era was ushered in russia…communism. i’ve often discussed the ideas of communism and socialism and distinguished how one is the political and the other the economic arms of the same beast.

i’ve often asked myself how such a fiercely independent people as the cossacks could ever allow such a stark and dramatic revolution to occur. i am no longer as surprised. who 200, 100 or even 50 years ago would have ever believed we would stand on the precipice, staring at a viable comparison to stalinist-communism, styled social revolution?!

this is an unthinkably important moment in our history. this is the moment we decide the future direction of our country. this is the moment we as a nation stand and fight. we must call upon the industrious and indomitable spirit of americans to look into the face of fear and not blink. future generations will certainly judge us for how we act today!

c-12

the first few weeks have made an early impression. gtmo is an unusual place. most everyone is transient; one year is a long stay with six months the average. the feeling of being ‘new’ only lasts a month until you learn you are nearly established and all your friends are leaving. quite odd.

all said though, life is good. flying the c-12 is as much fun as i imagined before i left. switching back to fixed wing airplanes has brought with it an almost new view of flying. taxing passengers is certainly different from tactical flying. if last night is any indication, i will be gaining some interesting experiences. last night i flew to kingston jamaica just for some approaches. while this may not seem like an intersting thing to some of you, for a helo pilot, it is quite an adventure.

this is a short and insignificant entry, but just wanted to put something up. hopefully more to come…

i can’t help but get a little sick pleasure out of the state of the market. honestly, playing the stock market is better than watching a good suspense movie. if you are fully invested, you hope and pray for the good guy to get out of the house with his beautiful girlfriend; if you are cashed out and on the sidelines, you love the slow steady walk of the bad guy – the one where he simply takes his time waiting for the inevitable trip.

well, looks like we’re witnessing at least a stumble if not a complete fall. i mentioned on lifeconnect two weeks ago it was time to take profits as the market was overbought simply on emotion. thankfully i took my own advice. its difficult to sell off then watch as the stocks you just sold gain a few points, but all is right when you see the red numbers of death a few days later.

there is increasing speculation as to the cause of our current volatility (a topic i will expound upon in detail later) but the fact remains, volatility is a traders friend. there are many tactics and strategies to trading, none of which i seem to employ in my ‘on again, off again’, erratic trading. the simple fact is, if you take your money seriously, then the volatility offers a great chance to make money. make no mistake, your money is yours to manage. even if you utilize a broker, you simply must take ownership over your own investments.

all right, enough rambling and on to my current watch list to include buy in points. as always, these are simply my opinions, but i put my money where my mouth is. if you care, i’ll most certainly supply chart analysis as support for my points.

scoreboard:

Year to date – Luke 19.44% Dow -7.24%
Q2 – Luke 35.36% Dow 3.06%

Watchlist:
Symbol / Target Price

AAPL 177
CSE 14.75
DRYS 66
DSX 25.13
EDU 50
ESV 65
EXM 32
FRO 50
IEO 75
ILF 250
KOL 42
LEH 20
MA 245
SFI 14
SLX 87
TAN 21
TELOZ 29.5
V 69

there you have it. do your own research, but this might be a jumping off point. happy trading. if you have any good tips, please let me know. oh, a study of market forces is on the agenda.

i must admit, my brief blogging career to date shows signs of less than stellar performance. i am, after all, a flippant writer with a short attention span. though my enthusiasm seems above reproach, my constitution for consistency is lacking.

i often feel as though i have much to say as the world must be saved. but more often than not, i’m learning it is me who is in need of salvation and education. but as any teacher will tell you, at times the best learning comes from teaching.

i do not know what i’ll write about or where this blog will take me. in the past it has served as an idea board, a launching pad, a place to rant or laud and even mournfully dirge. i hope to find direction and i hope to once again find a voice that sounds right in my own ear.

my ideas and thoughts tend to be my own and so often in opposition to those who are gracious enough to read my outspread mind. i’m not sure if i’ve offended more or spurred more thought. writing with an audience in mind is a tedious path. i’ve followed it before and bowed to its tireless pressure.

this blog will constitute my thoughts. this blog will not be about the audience. if you choose to read, please indulge fully; criticize and critique; scoff and rebuff or think and enjoy. but i must admit, i almost hope no one reads. sometimes the whisper in the wilderness is more satisfying than the shout among the masses.

today is a new day. my battered and clipped wings feel spry for flight.

it is late in coming, but it is now time to begin writing again. skool is in full swing and summer is waning. thank you for you patience in my absence. so, please, keep reading and i hope i can provide a few thoughts, insights and maybe even a laugh or two. its good to be back.

lr

26. there simply is no way to be at one with flies
27. april showers bring may heat
28. work, with out professionalism quickly feels like pee wee’s playhouse
29. seven varieties of food is simply to few
30. email may be the single best invention
31. my guitar has nearly gone around the world, yet it still knows the same old tunes
32. absence does make the heart grow fonder
33. people should measure their reading not in number of books, but by the pound
34. you can still smell rain, even in the desert
35. even if it is simply to remember the flatness, a man should sketch at least one scene of the place he lives
36. camels get a bad rap…they are actually quiet kind, curious animals
37. Kuwaiti’s have mastered the art of hiring others to do their work and still stay rich
38. the constant wind of the desert speaks to you
39. I’m glad I’m not here during the summer
40. arabs clearly learned nothing from Rodney King
41. I still haven’t figured out why arabs use 220 electricity instead of 110
42. few things are better then a decent cigar and a swig of scotch…even in the desert
43. crossword puzzles are a lonesome man’s best friend
44. if first you don’t succeed, throw more money at it…it’s the American way
45. it takes a complex mind to grasp on to a single, simple idea
46. more people are interested in the trees then the forest. There must be something about those trees
47. any person can survive six months anywhere (the air force just does it a bit easier then the rest)
48. hand written letters are as good as kisses
49. kisses are hard to beat
50. serenity can be found anywhere Jesus is to be found

I lay awake, curiously pondering the sensation of losing that spark; the spark of intrigue, of mystery which surrounds life as a child. Do you remember when you were a child playing outside? You didn’t require anything more then a stick for a sword and an old towel for a cape. Life teamed with mystery and the unknown. There were creeks to explore, rocks to overturn, trees to climb, bugs to squash…all in the name of mystery and natural philosophy. Though those particular words would not be used, for that is the way a grown-up would explain it.

I am reminded of Saint-Exupéry’s wonderful contrast between the mind of a child and the mind of an adult in Le Petit Prince. In it, Saint-Exupéry so eloquently demonstrated the lack of imagination of the narrator. It was to his shame. So often I feel like the pilot in the story. I have lost the ability to be amazed. I have lost the since of mystery.

I do not feel alone however. I am accompanied by most all of the men and woman on this fine rock. Where is the mystery we so enjoyed as a child? The resounding answer is, it’s gone. Lost. Never to be found again. It is not a loss of innocence on the part of the observer, but merely a consenting sigh. We have no continents to discover, no pyramids to uncover, no seas to explore, no conquests left unturned, no forgotten people, no race untried. No mystery.

All is explained. There is no longer the question of why something falls or how to determine longitude. We no longer wonder at the marvels of the balanced humours in the body, make up of light, or life at the bottom of the ocean. Science has given us all the answers. There is no Santa and, what is more, there never was.

We are nearly done explaining. We are most definitely done exploring. What is left? Where does a man extinguish his innate desire to conquer, explore and discover? Simply put, no where. It’s like buying a new house. The first few months feel exuberant and wistful. Each corner, nook and cranny is new and unique; yet inevitably, the newness wears off and what is left is living. We are as a people now living.

Look at the big picture of science and development in recent times; effort is not put toward the challenge of new things to come, rather to creature comforts and longer life. But it’s not beyond reasonable to ask the point of a longer life void of the possibility of mystery and adventure? Who wants to live bored longer?

Now truly in your mind as you read you are sure to think of dozens of things exciting and truly worth living for and indeed I am with you one hundred percent. But I hope you understand my point. I miss the mystery of youth. I miss the promises of new and unexplained. I miss the hope of adventure and the insecurity of doubt. Bring back the mystery and you will bring back the spark of the living.

Part of me thinks it is a sign of the times, a consequence of our occupancy and tenure, the other thinks it may simply be a human condition. I’ve often wondered what it might be like if lo and behold a press conference is held announcing our allegiance with little green men from outer space; these little green guys are friendly and desire a peaceful co-existence filled with cooperation and mutual benefaction. Imagine the awe and surprise. But after a few years would it stop being interesting? Would it be like the short lived television show Alien Nation where ‘Newcomers’ are added to the mix and once the new car smell is gone we learn they are as bored as we are holding down regular jobs and miring through similar financial, familiar and relational issues?

Life requires a since of purpose. Life requires a since of mystery. I made the off-handed comment in a past post, ‘It seems the human constitution is weak unless provoked; we tend toward the lowest common denominator unless pushed.’ If this is true, what do we have left to push us? This author has no answers as I am searching for mystery myself.

There is at least One whom I fear; whose very idea is a mystery with no beginning or end. God. Perhaps He set life up in such a manner that ultimately we would seek Him as the true mystery and only satisfying journey.

I dislike the idea of a neat little bow, wrapping up a post for the simple hope of closure. Sometimes there is no closure, there is only observation. So I’ll leave you with this question: where can a man find a touch of mystery in this shabby little town?

there are many ways to get to know someone. i considered many questions, many ways to get to the core of a person, but i could can think of none better then the following. if you feel so inclined, please answer the following question. for my friends and family, i would love to read your answers, but if you would rather email it then post it, feel free. however, sometimes there is a freedom in transparency, so feel free to post as you will. alright, here is the question….

‘i am _____.’

thats it. be good